Surface high pressure was sliding just north of the area early this morning, ushering in a slightly drier airmass with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s along with a light north wind. Temperatures today should be at or a few degrees cooler than yesterday with dry conditions expected as shortwave energy wont approach the area until tonight however some precip may occur further west into Nebraska and Kansas and we may see some cloud cover spread in from this. A low level jet looks to develop tonight across Kansas, nosing into northwest Missouri with models showing a decent MCS developing and moving southeast overnight. At this time areas along and north of Highway 54 have the best shot at experiencing this MCS Overnight and into the early morning hours Friday. Enough instability may exist for an isolated severe wind/hail threat. A few of the 00z high res models (especially the NAM Nest, show this MCS much further west, traveling more south across Kansas. Currently siding more with the other cams, NAM and GFS that takes the MCS through the northern part of the area. QPF amounts of 0.5 to locally 1 inch are also possible where the MCS tracks overnight. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 The exact details of tonight`s MCS will have direct implications on the forecast for Friday and Friday night. The region will remain in west/northwest flow during the day on Friday and there are indications that a boundary of sorts will be laid out across northern portions of the area during the day, perhaps from previous nights convection. A more veered low level jet will weaken during the day Friday however 850mb temps will warm several degrees and we may see some temps near 90 depending on how much clearing takes place from morning precip. Shortwave energy moves down from the north by late afternoon and evening, and forecasted instability looks high (ML capes of 3000j/kg). Showers and thunderstorms will likely erupt as the cap breaks, exactly where remains to be seen however locations north of I-44 are favored. Given the high instability and modest wind shear, there will be a slightly higher severe threat with wind and hail the main threats at this point. A decent low level jet develops during the night and noses into the Ozarks region, therefore there is a signal for backbuilding showers and storms somewhere very close to, if not across the area. Will need to monitor this since it could pose a higher flash flood threat as plenty of moisture will be present. Models have had the tendency of being too far north with subsequent MCS tracks therefore there could still be rather large changes to pops/qpf Friday night. Precip could linger into the early part of Saturday however the rest of Saturday looks mostly dry at this point with highs around 90. Another shortwave moves through Sunday and may provide additional showers and storms. There is a signal that mid level heights will rise early next week as the summer time high pressure tries to build back into the area, this would generally mean drier and warmer conditions for the area. &&

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